The $600 million lossthat isn't what it seems

The breakdown

Is the loss real, and does the cash last?

The headline losses are mostly non-cash charges that grow when the stock rises. The real questions are whether ANKTIVA's sales can outrun about $1.67 billion of liabilities, the Oberland royalty and the Nant note, and what the FDA decides on January 6, 2027.

1. What ANKTIVA does.

   ANKTIVA (nogapendekin alfa inbakicept, N-803) is an IL-15 superagonist that activates natural killer and CD8 T cells. The FDA approved it with BCG in April 2024 for BCG-unresponsive non-muscle invasive bladder cancer with carcinoma in situ. In the QUILT-3.032 trial, 71% of patients had a complete response, with a median duration of 26.6 months.

   Sources 3

2. Sales took off.

   Net product revenue went from $14.2 million in 2024 to $113.0 million in 2025, up 698%. Q1 2026 product revenue was $44.2 million, up about 168%, and Q2 reached $50.7 million. The permanent J-code took effect in January 2025.

   Sources 321

3. The loss is mostly marks on paper.

   Q1 2026 lost $632.8 million and Q2 lost $230.4 million. In the first half, the fair value of a related-party convertible note and of warrant liabilities rose by about $672 million as the stock climbed, roughly $532 million of it in Q1 and $140 million in Q2 (our arithmetic). Those are non-cash charges.

   Sources 12

4. The debt is real.

   Stockholders' deficit is $1.05 billion. Oberland has paid $375 million under a revenue interest agreement and takes 5.625% to 12.5% of worldwide net sales (excluding China), up to a cap of 195%. ImmunityBio also owes $480 million on a convertible note to Nant Capital. Cash, cash equivalents and Treasury securities were about $357 million at June 30, 2026.

   Sources 1

5. The January 6, 2027 catalyst.

   The FDA accepted the supplemental application for papillary disease without carcinoma in situ and set a PDUFA date of January 6, 2027. There is no assurance of approval. Outside the US, the UAE approved ANKTIVA for bladder cancer and for metastatic lung cancer with checkpoint inhibitors, and Saudi Arabia granted an accelerated conditional approval in lung cancer.

   Sources 1

6. The warning letter.

   In March 2026 the FDA's Office of Prescription Drug Promotion sent a warning letter about a podcast interview and a TV ad that never aired. A securities class action followed, naming the company and its Executive Chairman; those are allegations, not findings.

   Sources 1