Google got a floor.Shareholders didn't.
Cipher signed $16.6 billion of data center rent with Amazon and a leading AI lab, yet its stock fell from a $29.18 record close to $8.98 in four months. Inside its Google warrant agreement is a $430 million floor.
- Runtime16:50
- PublishedOct 22, 2026
- Research as ofOct 17, 2026
- Sources7
The numbers
What the filings say
The breakdown
Who gets paid before shareholders?
The leases and the construction are real and verifiable. The equity carries the risk: heavy debt, rising build costs, a pile of share-convertible claims and a top-up owed to Google if the stock stays under about $17.78.
From Bitcoin miner to AI landlord.
Cipher went public through a 2021 SPAC as a Texas Bitcoin miner. Its real asset turned out to be its grid connections, which AI tenants need more than miners do.
Sources 2The rent is contracted, not collected.
$16.6 billion of contracted revenue, a 17.3-year average lease term and a projected $843M of average annual net operating income. Those are management's numbers, and the $843M is a projection. At June 30, every dollar of revenue was still mining.
The bill came first.
A $267.5M quarterly loss, about $6 billion of debt principal, $964M spent on property and equipment in six months, and Barber Lake now estimated roughly $550M over its original budget.
Google's $430 million floor.
Google got 24.18 million warrant shares at one cent for backstopping Fluidstack's lease. If those shares aren't worth $430M when the exercise period starts, Cipher must make up the difference in shares or cash. At the October 16 close of $8.98, that would be roughly 24 million more shares (our one-day estimate).
More claims on the same company.
About 40.7 million shares issued on October 16 to retire 2030 notes, plus $1.3B of 2031 and $850M of new 2032 convertible notes (conversion price about $15.31), with physical settlement now the default.
Two endings
Where this could go
Rent arrives and the floor disappears.
- Data halls deliver on the amended schedule and rent shows up in Q3/Q4 reports.
- The stock recovers above about $17.78 before the warrant measurement date.
- Project debt amortizes from rent, and new leases convert the 3.4 GW pipeline.
Shares grow faster than rent.
- Top-up shares, note conversions and at-the-market sales keep raising the share count.
- Build costs overrun beyond what Cipher has budgeted to bear.
- Rent goes to debt amortization before equity, and two tenant groups carry nearly all contracted revenue.
Scenarios, not predictions. Not financial advice.
Check our work
Every source
- 01Form 10-Q: quarter ended June 30, 2026SEC filingRevenue, losses, cash, restricted cash, debt, equity and share count.sec.gov · Aug 4, 2026
- 02Form 10-K: fiscal year 2025SEC filingAnnual results and the history from mining to data centers.sec.gov · Feb 24, 2026
- 03Google Warrant Agreement (EX-4.1), Section 3.08SEC filingThe 24.18M penny warrants and the $430M top-up.sec.gov · Sep 24, 2025
- 04Form 8-K: 2032 notes and exchangeSEC filingThe new $850M convertible notes and the 2030 note exchange.sec.gov · Oct 14, 2026
- 05Form 8-K: conversion price, capped call, share settlementSEC filingThe ~$15.31 conversion price, the $28.35 cap and physical settlement.sec.gov · Oct 16, 2026
- 06Company presentation (8-K, Oct 13, 2026)Company presentation$16.6B contracted revenue, $843M projected NOI, 3.4 GW pipeline, Barber Lake costs. Management's own numbers.sec.gov · Oct 13, 2026
- 07Daily share prices (Yahoo Finance)Market dataThe $29.18 record close and the $8.98 October 16 close. Fetched Oct 17, 2026.finance.yahoo.com · Oct 17, 2026
How we researched this
Every financial figure comes from the SEC filings above. Company-presentation figures ($16.6B contracted revenue, $843M projected annual NOI, 3.4 GW pipeline) are management's own numbers, and the $843M is a projection.
The floor math (break-even about $17.78, about $217M of value, about 24M extra shares) is our own calculation on a single day's close. Which date starts the exercise period is defined in the Fluidstack lease, which isn't public.
Also shown in the film: the Fluidstack lease and Google backstop 8-K (Sept 25, 2025), the Barber Lake amendment 8-K (Sept 25, 2026), the Stingray presentation (June 2026) and Form 4s for Bitfury and V3 Holding (Oct 2026), all on Cipher's EDGAR page.
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